Threats Come in All Shapes and Sizes
Given that system designers have finite resources, it’s tempting to limit the threat portfolio for a space system to the more obvious threats: electronic, kinetic, cyber and the like. However, depending upon the construction of the system there may be other threats that could be overlooked or at least underemphasized. As the commercial space industry has exploded over the past decade many governments have been seeking to leverage those investments, particularly for capabilities such as satellite communications (SATCOM). The goal is to both lower operating costs and also to increase resilience through diversification to create a hybrid architecture (government + commercial). Some countries, such as the United States, have essentially utilized such a de facto hybrid architecture for over 20 years, while others, such as the United Kingdom, have been marching in that direction. Most recently the UK invested in the OneWeb LEO SATCOM system, whose architecture is close to being complete.
However, over the past several days the Russian government has threatened to block the latest OneWeb satellite launch from Kazakhstan unless certain demands are met by the UK. At this time the issue has not yet been resolved [https://spacenews.com/rogozin-puts-poison-pill-conditions-on-oneweb-soyuz-launch/], but is a case study in how threats to space systems may reside in unlikely places. Commercial operators have vigorously lobbied governments to lease SATCOM capacity with the assurance that their systems are highly reliable. Generally this declaration is interpreted to mean the actual system availability over any number of conditions and potential failure modes. But the recent OneWeb situation illustrates that non-technical issues may also represent degradation to service that can be just as impactful as a random piece of orbital debris or an electromagnetic jammer.
Businesses are in the business of business, and balance sheets and profit margins drive those businesses. As a result, if a 20% of the capacity of a hybrid architecture is provided by a single commercially managed service provider, some analysis is likely warranted to ensure that contingencies exist if for some reason that service is denied. This could be due to bankruptcy, an unexpected change in ownership, reprioritization of business goals, or…political difficulties with a launch provider in another country. Time and again it is apparent that loss of capability has the same impact to the system regardless of its origin. Considering all credible threats to the system operation prior to prioritizing is a worthwhile endeavor to ensure that the resulting risk profile is within acceptable limits as the system is designed and deployed.
